Figure 2.16 | Demographic Transition Model by Max Roser, illustrating the shift from high to low birth and death rates across five stages of population development.

- The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) illustrates how birth rates, death rates, and population growth change as a country develops.
- Stage 1: Both birth and death rates are high, leading to stable or slow population growth.
- Stage 2: Death rates fall rapidly due to improvements in healthcare and sanitation, while birth rates remain high, causing very rapid population growth.
- Stage 3: Birth rates begin to fall as societies urbanize and families choose to have fewer children; death rates continue to decline slowly, so population growth slows.
- Stage 4: Both birth and death rates are low, resulting in stable or slow population growth.
- Stage 5: Birth rates fall below death rates, leading to a natural decrease in population (population decline).
- The model explains the historical shift from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility as nations industrialize and modernize.